王立铭文中所说的他倾向相信WHO的R0预估，这个R0预估1.4~2.5是WHO 2019.1.22~23日的会议声明中说的,并明确表明了是当前预估：
http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)- The following elements were considered as critical:Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.
事实上，WHO的这个数据应该也是严谨的，不是张嘴就来，一种很显然的测算方法是对比SARS和MERS，可以参考 Global Biosecurity上的一段说明：
http://jglobalbiosecurity.com/articles/51/- This is a new infection, so it can only be compared with SARS and MERS CoV.It initially appeared less infectious than SARS, which had a R0 of about 2 but more infectious than MERS CoV, which has a R0 close to 1. Some experts are estimating R0 to be 3 or higher, based on the surge in cases in late January. However, such estimates do not factor in increased awareness, testing and reporting as a factor in the surge in reported cases. We also cannot rule out a large point-source outbreak with some person-to person transmission. The epidemiologic picture of a localised epicentre (more cases in Hubei than other parts of China, and the vast majority of cases in China) does not support a R0 of >3. In many reported cases, the disease seems to have a long, mild prodromal phase before people become severely ill and present to hospital, so we need better estimates of R0 based on actual onset date of symptoms (rather than date of case report). In terms of case fatality rate (CFR), the CFR with SARS was 12%, MERS CoV 26-30% and 2019nCoV appears to be about 2-3% based on informal reports of cases and deaths.The transmission appears mixed (like MERS CoV), with the initial picture mostly a point-source outbreak and some propagated transmission from person to person in families and in a health care setting (3). With SARS, travel-related cases in other countries frequently caused satellite epidemics with clear person to person transmission in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore and Canada. This has not been seen so far with the new coronavirus, although 62 cases have been reported in 15 other countries. With MERS, the only outbreak outside of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was in South Korea, and over 60% of cases are sporadic (8).
我不是专业人士，但是可以理解，R0的测算是非常复杂的，也会受后续的病毒变异、防疫措施影响而变动，最终这个病毒整体疫情中R0如何，等尘埃落定后我们再看吧。
王立铭的文章篇幅不长，浅显易懂，其中最关键的一句我认为是楼上某位朋友所说的：1月24日严格证明了病毒的人传人能力。
这种科普文章不可能像学术论文这么严谨，大家取其精华即可。
