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India, China ties face deepfreeze unless border issue is settled |India Today Insight
The winter months should give diplomats and the political leadership a window to break the stalemate in Ladakh

Lt Gen. Vinay Shankar (retd)
Delhi
September 17, 2020
UPDATED: September 17, 2020 21:55 IST

Indian fighter jets have been conducting regular sorties over the Ladakh region. (Photo by Bandeep Singh/Sept. 14)
Domestic commentary on resolution of the military confrontation with China in Ladakh seems to indicate that India should, at best, be prepared to settle for status quo ante (April-May 2020) or to positions somewhere in between. Should we?
This is perhaps conditioned by the postulations of many strategists—some armchair—who dwell on China’s enormous force superiority and its doctrines of multi-domain warfare, wherein cyber and electronic warfare attacks harmonised by its advanced artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities will disrupt and paralyse our command and control systems, and then the follow-on kinetic attacks based on ground, air, sea and space-based systems will overwhelm us. The more informed amongst us must disabuse the public of such unfounded fears.
Yes, the Chinese are militarily stronger. The force equation can be pegged at 60:40, give or take a few numbers either way. Based just on numbers and a marginal technological edge in the event of a war, we will obviously suffer more, but in such equations the capacity to suffer must also be considered. Besides, when we further examine these equations and factor in the imponderables of soldier/ leadership quality and ‘kismet’, the outcomes can indeed be unpredictable. Any or all of these together can turn the tables either way. So who knows?
Having established above that war can go either way, let us briefly explore what ought to be the unthinkable between two of the world’s oldest and richest civilisations—the nuclear dimension. China does indeed have more bombs and relatively superior delivery systems. But China cannot be sure that it can protect Beijing or Shanghai from being struck by one of our nuclear bombs. Likewise, we can also not be sure that Delhi or Mumbai will not be hit by nuclear bombs.
The big takeaway from all of this is that at the negotiation table we occupy chairs of similar sizes. Managing unsettled borders is frightfully expensive besides being terribly stressful, at least for the defence forces, especially when having to firefight such crises. More so when defence budgets are hugely short of projected requirements.
Unsettled borders also thwart development and economic prosperity. Look at western Europe after World War II, which ended up giving a new template to international borders. If the 21st century has to be the ‘Asian Century’, we have to look at settled borders between Asia’s two big neighbours. There is no other way to improving the quality of life in our part of the world.
Understanding this reality, India has earnestly tried. Since the eighties, our prime ministers (from Rajiv Gandhi to Narendra Modi) have invested considerable political capital in fostering bilateral relations with China. Consequently, for some years now, China has been amongst our largest trading partners. Admittedly, we have benefitted from this relationship, but on balance the Chinese have benefitted more. Not only have the Chinese gained more from our bilateral relationship but they have also subjected us to frequent bullying and humiliation. It’s time we ended this chapter. The only way forward is to negotiate a border settlement for our relationship to return to business as usual.
China’s The Global Times has, of late, been suggesting a border settlement on the basis of the ‘1959 line’ offered by then Chinese premier Chou En-Lai. That we can assume is the maximalist position of the Chinese. To us, the McMohan Line in the east and the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh can form the basis of an acceptable settlement. Following the unilateral ceasefire during the 1962 war, the Chinese of their own accord chose to withdraw 20 km on their side of these lines. Obviously, these lines were also the Chinese understanding of where the border lies. Since then, they have chosen to renege on this position. In their strategic calculus, keeping India in a state of suspended animation on the border issue was perhaps advantageous to their long-term goals in the region. Clearly, we have been naïve in having played along. However, it’s now time to convey that we are no longer willing to be held in suspended animation.
The joint statement issued after the foreign ministers of India and China met in Moscow on September 10 suggests that the Chinese are inclined to defuse the confrontation in Ladakh. We must wait and watch. However, steps to reduce trade and commerce and delink our economies, as well as the ban on Chinese apps, especially those that spin money, must continue. We must make it abundantly clear that without a border settlement, our relationship will continue to travel downhill and eventually freeze.
Militarily we must remain alert over the coming winter months. This period ought to give sufficient time to the diplomats and the political leadership to arrive at a settlement or figure out the contours of our future relationship. The ensuing winter months should also be used to reflect on our strategies for dealing with unsettled borders. It seems that while we have learnt to live with them, we have yet to figure out how to effectively manage them.
The author is former Director-General, Artillery
